# Active Bets - [[Multiverse BOGO]] # Updates # Week 2023.48 ## Wednesday - I finished the script for the [[Multiverse BOGO]], and it's in a better spot than before. I updated the page to reflect the truth better. ## Week 2023.47 - I've made good progress on a [[Litmus Test for Small Bets]] that will help me quickly decide if an idea is worth pursuing. ## Week 2023.46 ### Monday - I've ordered a set of dice to improve the quality of the randomness, as the coin I was using to bet on [[Traveel's Daily Coinflip]] was constantly ending up as heads, so I'm going to those to pick a side for the bet. ### Wednesday - I've created a [Google Colab Lottery Draw](https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1jacsFxTzSlG7UQSQMbCUaxl15G6Dzn3W?usp=sharing) for helping with [[Multiverse BOGO]] that allows me to: - generate a set of numbers from a fixed number from 1 to the maximum odds - generate a predictable number within the odds limit from an optimal number of dice rolls from a set of predefined dice. - generate a set of numbers from [random.org](https://www.random.org/) and [Quantum RNG](http://qrng.ethz.ch/) without picking a source explicitly. Sources are picked randomly as well. ### Friday - I've started working on a [[Litmus Test for Small Bets]], which is intended to help me weed out small bets before I start them so that they increase in quality. ### Saturday * I've used chatGPT4.turbo to generate a bit more code from [drand](drand.love), and I plan to change the other sources and use `sha256` as a seed of randomness to generate the numbers for the lottery. The number selection was also updated to pick the first 6 from a shuffled array of 49 numbers to simulate the selection process better. * I am still trying to figure out where to write this, but I've lost around $10 worth of Mana on [manifold.markets]() with a *string* of bad bets that I've made to take advantage of a market and against another big better. I was unprepared for another more prepared actor. ## Week 2023.45 - I tried to learn and experiment with the [[Kelly Criterion]] - manifold daily coinflip - We need to add a description and a page for this. - Add a standard comment that I can paste into Manifold - New sources of RNG for this as a simple coin flip don't seem enough - The next plan is to improve the usage of RNG to break predictive patterns and build a training ground to test predictive patterns and see if we can break out of them # Week 2023.44 ### Monday - I created this blog that you see right now and a few pages related to SmallBets. ### Tuesday - I incremented on [[Multiverse BOGO]], bought the first (official) ticket and set the necessary notifications. ### Friday - I was looking at a [[Prediction Market]] on Manifold and discovered the following Github repository: [u0s41v/FairlyRandom](https://github.com/u0s41v/FairlyRandom/), which uses [drand](https://github.com/drand/drand) to generate the picks. I will use it to generate the other sets of random numbers.